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Patience is both a virtue and a necessity when investing in TSLA. September deliveries will likely exceed a whisper number that has taken off in the past three weeks and now sits between 470–475k. That said, investors will throw away the good news given it was driven by the U.S. EV tax credit pulling demand forward. The real story comes on the September earnings call when we hear about the 2026 outlook and what that means for 2027.

The ending of the U.S. EV tax credit will prove to be a long-term win for Tesla, given it lured traditional automakers into slowing their investment in electrification while Tesla builds an advantage in autonomy. This marks an exclamation point on a consumer shift away from EV adoption that I did not anticipate. I now expect about 25% of cars sold in the U.S. in 2030 to be fully electric, compared with my 50% forecast five years ago. Traditional automakers are more skeptical and see little motivation to prioritize EV investment in the near term. In the end, I stand by my conviction that EVs’ cost and performance benefits, particularly in autonomy, will win consumers over. Traditional automakers are making a mistake by pulling back. By slowing EV development to save costs today, they risk being caught unprepared to capitalize on autonomy tomorrow.

We’re just one week into the iPhone 17 cycle, and investor sentiment is upbeat on the prospects of the iPhone returning to 5% growth in FY26. Early global lead time data reinforces this optimism: wait times suggest demand is running modestly ahead of expectations. Together, these datapoints support the case that iPhone unit growth will return next year, modestly exceeding consensus.

Apple may be exploring an investment in Intel (source: Bloomberg), but I believe the strategic benefits are limited. Over the past five years, Apple’s product strategy has moved decisively away from Intel and toward custom chip designs manufactured by TSMC. I see the only rationale for Apple to invest as political goodwill.

When Zuckerberg paints his vision, I need a week to put into context where he's going. At Meta Connect he described a future where stylish glasses, powered by AI assistants, become the new computing platform, effectively delivering “personal superintelligence” to every user. Meta is investing roughly $100B per year into these technologies, factoring in Capex and Reality Labs losses, so the question is not whether or not they can build them, but whether people will want them. I believe glasses will take about five years to gain traction, and compelling personalized AI will take about three years. Once there, this technology should become central to consumer computing.

Over the past year, Apple may have stumbled on AI, but they continue to lead when it comes to hardware. My sense is that the iPhone 17 will exceed investors’ expectations, proving that a compelling iPhone in hand is worth more than the promise of Apple Intelligence. This sets the table for iPhone upside over the next year.

Meta Connect 2025 showcased Zuckerberg’s commitment to making glasses the preferred AI interface of the future, ahead of the phone. The lineup of four new models, priced between $379 and $799 (compared to Apple’s $3,500 Vision Pro), signals Meta’s ambition to sell tens of millions of units next year, up from about 5 million in 2025. Still, the incremental revenue will be so small that it will be hard to notice (adds 1% to Street estimates), and making the technology truly work remains a challenge.

At the end of the month, the U.S. EV tax credit will sunset, which may explain why in August Ford and GM reset their EV plans and in September VW cut its U.S. 2030 EV target to 20%, down from 50% three years ago. This tempered EV outlook contrasts with increasing investments into autonomy, pushing these companies into a Catch-22: saving money by slowing the path to electrification dampens the autonomy reward.

Thanks to Mark Gurman, most of the details about Apple’s event today were already known. The two wildcards were pricing and, more importantly, what the new iPhone Air form factor would actually look like, a key factor to determine uptake. The Air's look was largely what I expected. My biggest surprise was the more industrial, Apple Watch Ultra-like design of the iPhone Pro models. It is a subtle but powerful dynamic that should drive upgrades over the next year. The key takeaway is the two new form factors, the Pro models and the Air, make this the most significant iPhone hardware refresh since 2014.

I consider myself grounded in reality. The reality is that a fairy tale Tesla $8.5T market cap is on the table. Tesla’s board has made it clear that they want Elon’s attention on the company, and they are willing to make it worth his time with a potential $1T pay package. The numbers are mind blowing and achievable if Musk commercializes physical AI through FSD, robotaxi, and Optimus. One final lever would likely involve combining Tesla with xAI.

Shares of Nvidia are down 6% since reporting July earnings compared to the Nasdaq flat. The sell-off reflects disappointment around the October revenue guide versus the whisper number and growing concerns about customer concentration. Looking forward, growth in CY26 will once again depend on hyperscaler capex trends, excluding Meta because the growth expectation is already sky high for next year. If Microsoft, Google, and Amazon maintain their 7% capex growth outlook, Nvidia should meet consensus growth estimates for CY26 of 31%. If those companies increase capex by 25%, Nvidia’s growth could reach 36%.

Shares of NVDA are down 3% in after-hours on a fractional miss in July datacenter revenue and a October revenue outlook that fell below the whisper. Adjusting for the $2B–$5B in China H20 revenue excluded from the October guide, the outlook lands about 2%-7% above the October revenue whisper. Additionally, Jensen dropped a nugget on the call hinting that growth in CY26 could be closer to 50%, well above the Street's 29% expectation. The bottom line is we're still early in the AI buildout, and growth next year will be higher than most expect.