Tesla’s March quarter was better than the stock’s post-call reaction suggests, with shares essentially flat in after-hours trading. Profitability came in well ahead of expectations, and delivery commentary for the rest of the year pointed to growth in line with the Street. However, the headline was the Capex guide for 2026, which came in 25% higher than what they said last quarter. My take is that this level of increase in Capex is a good thing, putting more space between Tesla and its competitors, though at this point, I'm not sure who those competitors even are.

Investors knew this was coming, as evidenced by AAPL shares being down only 0.5% on the news that Cook is moving into the chairman role. This opens the door for a new investor conversation around Apple and AI. Fifteen years ago, Cook began to orchestrate an AAPL multiple re-rating around Services that started with a new narrative. I expect Ternus will take a page out of that book and shift the stock narrative to show that they can win in AI. I'll be watching for success with the new Siri later this year, additions of leadership from AI-first companies, and maintenance of their gold standard culture around product quality as evidence that it's working.

The fundamentals of the AI trade continue to mostly exceed expectations, yet investors remain unimpressed. In the two trading days following better-than-expected earnings, ASML shares fell approximately 7%. Similarly, following its own beat, TSMC saw shares drop about 3% in a single day, all while the Nasdaq rose 2% over the same period. The bottom line: AI chip fundamentals are largely outperforming projections, but investors aren't rewarding these companies for their results. The reason? They fear the party is about to slow down or end entirely. The question I’m struggling with is: What will it take for these companies to win back investor favor?

I’ve obsessed about all things Apple for more than 20 years. When asked for Apple’s defining achievement, I’m tempted to talk about the iPhone. In reality, the answer is much deeper than a single product. Apple’s true achievement is the culture Jobs instilled that made the Mac and iPhone possible and has sustained the business long after the launch's. As Apple looks toward the decades ahead, investors can rest easy knowing that Jobs’ product discipline remains embedded in the culture, and that culture will be the foundation for future hit products.

Tesla’s March quarter delivery report slightly missed the estimates, up 6.3% y/y vs. the Street at up 8% and the whisper of up 10%. The more important takeaway is that deliveries still grew 6% y/y in the first quarter, which offers a cleaner read on demand without the benefit of the U.S. tax credit that ended last September and added noise in the December report. March deliveries reinforce the view that Tesla's auto business is stabilizing, which remains strategically important to the broader autonomy story. Separately, the big miss in Energy and Storage (about 13% of the business), was a timing issue.

The bottom line: If Model 3 & Y deliveries come in at 324k or better (vs. the Street at 351k), it is a win for TSLA shares. It would demonstrate stability (flat y/y) in the first clear read on underlying demand following the expiration of U.S. EV credits. Taking a step back, while investor focus has shifted — with Robotaxi, FSD, and Optimus progress now central to the investment thesis — deliveries still matter. For the headline number, the Street is expecting 366k (up 8.5% y/y), compared to a 16% decrease in Dec-25 and a 7% increase in Sep-25. I am expecting 345k (up 2%). The key metric will be Model 3/Y deliveries, as S/X are being phased out. The Street is expecting 351k (up 8%), while I am expecting 330k (up 2%).

Jensen’s keynote reinforced a simple point: demand is tracking well above even high expectations, while investors remain concerned that growth beyond 2027 could slow sharply or even decline. Shares of NVDA fell 3% in the three days following GTC, compared to a 1.4% decline for the Nasdaq.