Shares of AAPL moved about 7% from the end of the “Surprise and Shine” event to close of market today (2.5 trading days), while the Nasdaq was flat. The move higher underscores that investors are optimistic that the new Duo will add a measurable amount to revenue in the coming year. That said, a look at FactSet analysts estimates reveal consensus revenue expectations for the next three quarters actually went down by 1% for analysts that have updated their models. The dynamic of shares of AAPL going higher while numbers are going slightly lower underscores the mixed investors feelings on the Duo topic. In the end, I expect Duo will be more successful than current expectations and account for around 12% of overall iPhone revenue in FY27, and add 3% to the company’s overall growth rates. The biggest disappoint of the event was we didn't get an update on the timing of the new Siri.

I've been dreading this day: Tim's last day as CEO of Apple. In the months leading up to his shift to chairman, I've thought a lot about his time at Apple. In the end, Tim accomplished what almost no one thought was possible. He took Jobs's greatest product, Apple itself, and shepherded it into a new era. In doing so, he drove Apple's market cap from $350B when he took over to $4.6T today. That's up about 2,300% vs. the Nasdaq, up around 900%. All that said, what I most admire about Cook is that despite all of the fortune and fame of becoming the world's most powerful CEO, he kept his North Star and always cared deeply about people. Below are the four things that stand out to me when I think about Cook's legacy.

Shares of NVDA were up about 8% following earnings on management guidance for CY27 revenue growth of at least 70% versus the Street at 45%. When we factor in the impact of higher memory prices, the guide implies the world's collective AI brain will be at least 60% larger next year vs. previous expectations of a 45% increase. Demand for compute continues to run ahead of supply, and Nvidia remains the best proxy for how quickly AI data center capacity is expanding. The one negative was the margin guide, calling for them to move from 45% in the last quarter to 71-72% in the January quarter before improving to 72-73% as price increases flow through in CY27. While margins are going down, I still consider them robust (they were 59% in the pre-AI-boom CY22). Post-earnings, the company announced it has acquired Hugging Face, showing Jensen is building an open-source hedge against hyperscalers that are pushing harder into custom silicon.

Nvidia reports its July quarter results on Wednesday, August 26. I expect them to do what they have done over the past few quarters: beat by 4% and raise revenue guidance for October by 3%. Given that last quarter they began to break out data center growth between hyperscalers and ACIE, the topic of growth rate trends within those segments will be a focus. I believe investors will want to see hyperscaler growth rates above 80% y/y (vs. 115% last quarter) and ACIE above 150% (vs. 74% last quarter). In other words, investors want to see that the growth baton has been handed to ACIE, given that group has more potential to drive long-term growth. The one wildcard, SpaceX, which I estimate accounted for about 4% of revenue in July, has the potential to become a 10% customer by the end of CY27. That means that SpaceX alone can drive hyperscaler capex growth in CY27 to above 68%, compared to the Street, which is currently at 38%. As for the stock, it's in a catch-22. Any upside they produce makes the out-year growth more difficult, a dynamic that mutes any upside to shares.

This week, the new Grok 4.6 moved from 8th to 4th place on the key AI model intelligence leaderboard. That’s noteworthy because over the last couple of years the model has been between 6th and 15th place. The move to 4th is impressive, but in the AI model leapfrog game the future position is debatable. I believe Grok’s trend in model intelligence will continue to improve relative to the competition over the next 6 months, yielding a top spot early in 2027. That’s important because in the long term, premium models will enjoy pricing leverage.

SpaceX shares were down 14% after its first quarter as a public company, despite June revenue beating Street expectations by 13%. The primary reason for the slide is that capex in the September and December quarters will be about 65% above the Street. This is the same investor capex concern that has plagued big tech for the last year, around the prospects that spending will dilute profits into perpetuity. While the concern is valid in some circumstances, it does not apply to SpaceX, which has the most aggressive vision: building a vertically integrated AI company. Revenue guidance, which centered on a $100B revenue run rate exiting 2026, implies about $22B in the December quarter, about 17% above the Street. The bottom line is the SpaceX business has grown and will continue to grow at 100%+ for the next couple of years, and investments in capex should ensure an impressive growth rate through 2030.

Over the past three months, shares of AAPL are up 22% (Thursday’s close), compared with the Nasdaq, which is up 1%. That makes the 7% drop in shares following earnings and guidance more palatable. In after-hours trading, shares traded down 3% following the June quarter results, which overall were only slightly ahead of expectations. The stock dropped an additional 4% on the September guide, which called for revenue growth of 9–11%, compared with the Street at 12%. I believe the guide would have called for 15% if not for supply constraints and FX. Either way, numbers are going down, and that understandably doesn’t sit well with investors. I believe that in the weeks to come, investors will step back and realize the guide was actually favorable relative to expectations. P.S. Don’t forget we may get a foldable iPhone this fall.