The fundamentals of the AI trade continue to mostly exceed expectations, yet investors remain unimpressed. In the two trading days following better-than-expected earnings, ASML shares fell approximately 7%. Similarly, following its own beat, TSMC saw shares drop about 3% in a single day, all while the Nasdaq rose 2% over the same period. The bottom line: AI chip fundamentals are largely outperforming projections, but investors aren't rewarding these companies for their results. The reason? They fear the party is about to slow down or end entirely. The question I’m struggling with is: What will it take for these companies to win back investor favor?

I’ve obsessed about all things Apple for more than 20 years. When asked for Apple’s defining achievement, I’m tempted to talk about the iPhone. In reality, the answer is much deeper than a single product. Apple’s true achievement is the culture Jobs instilled that made the Mac and iPhone possible and has sustained the business long after the launch's. As Apple looks toward the decades ahead, investors can rest easy knowing that Jobs’ product discipline remains embedded in the culture, and that culture will be the foundation for future hit products.

Tesla’s March quarter delivery report slightly missed the estimates, up 6.3% y/y vs. the Street at up 8% and the whisper of up 10%. The more important takeaway is that deliveries still grew 6% y/y in the first quarter, which offers a cleaner read on demand without the benefit of the U.S. tax credit that ended last September and added noise in the December report. March deliveries reinforce the view that Tesla's auto business is stabilizing, which remains strategically important to the broader autonomy story. Separately, the big miss in Energy and Storage (about 13% of the business), was a timing issue.

The bottom line: If Model 3 & Y deliveries come in at 324k or better (vs. the Street at 351k), it is a win for TSLA shares. It would demonstrate stability (flat y/y) in the first clear read on underlying demand following the expiration of U.S. EV credits. Taking a step back, while investor focus has shifted — with Robotaxi, FSD, and Optimus progress now central to the investment thesis — deliveries still matter. For the headline number, the Street is expecting 366k (up 8.5% y/y), compared to a 16% decrease in Dec-25 and a 7% increase in Sep-25. I am expecting 345k (up 2%). The key metric will be Model 3/Y deliveries, as S/X are being phased out. The Street is expecting 351k (up 8%), while I am expecting 330k (up 2%).

Jensen’s keynote reinforced a simple point: demand is tracking well above even high expectations, while investors remain concerned that growth beyond 2027 could slow sharply or even decline. Shares of NVDA fell 3% in the three days following GTC, compared to a 1.4% decline for the Nasdaq.

At next Monday's GTC 2026, Jensen will make it clear that demand continues to run ahead of investor expectations. This will likely be viewed by investors as a non-event, given it's consistent with their earnings comments three weeks ago. Investors will be keyed into any impact the conflict in the Middle East is having on business; however, I believe the impact is not measurable. The stock has a bigger challenge than a read on the next six months: the investors' "wall of worry" that growth will drop off in CY27. That reality is evidenced by shares being down 7% since they reported earnings on Feb 24th, compared to the Nasdaq being down 4%.

Apple’s product updates this week accomplished two goals: lifting revenue for the June quarter by 2%. It also demonstrates the Company's an ability to protect gross margins despite a tougher memory cost environment. We now forecast June growth of 10% y/y (Street at 8%) alongside slight upside to margins. Beyond June, while the new MacBook Neo should contribute a steady 1% to sales, with the initial tailwinds from the iPhone 17e and MacBook refreshes are expected to normalize toward neutral.