Over the past three months, shares of GOOG are up 31% vs the Nasdaq up 4%, as Google’s technical chops in AI have been validated. Strengthening AI products have translated into higher Street expectations for Search growth in December, increasing from 12% two months ago to 14%. I believe the segment will end the quarter up 15% based on our survey of sponsored ads within AI Overviews and AI Mode. That upside should flow into CY26, and provide further upside.

Nvidia gave three incremental updates at CES that pointed to upside this year. The first was Jensen’s comments in the keynote twice describing demand as “skyrocketing.” The second was CFO Colette Kress saying at the JPMorgan fireside that their previous target calling for a $500B data center revenue outlook through 2026 has “definitely gotten larger.” The third was Jensen’s comment that demand for the relaunch of the H20 in China was “quite high.” Shares of NVDA shrugged off the good news, trading down 4% in the three days following the updates, compared to the Nasdaq which was flat, underscoring investor concern that it's a function of time before growth stalls. I believe growth will be higher for longer, driven near term by the hyperscalers and long term by Physical AI.

Tesla delivered 418k vehicles versus Street expectations of 420k and above the whisper number of 415k. Overall, deliveries were down 16% year over year in December, compared with up 7% in September. Cutting through the noise around the timing of the tax credit expiration, I believe deliveries would have been down ~5% in both September and December signaling stabilization that should allow investors to remain focused on autonomy. Additionally, I believe these results indicate the first U.S. EV market share gains in a couple of years.

At the surface, our testing of Apps in ChatGPT showed how little value these integrations provide today. That said, our testing largely misses the point. What’s most important is that today some of the biggest tech companies, including Google, Microsoft, Apple, Salesforce and Adobe, are enabling ChatGPT to be the front end of some of their app experiences. That’s an impressive endorsement, especially considering many of them have their own LLMs that compete with GPT. This paves the way for OpenAI to make good on its prediction that it will become the platform that runs vertical AI applications.

We expect December deliveries, which will likely be reported on Friday, January 2, to come in at 415k versus the Street at 449k. This would imply deliveries are down 16% y/y, compared with the Street’s expectation of a 10% decline. The difference reflects our model’s adjustment for the expiration of the tax credit in September, which assumes year-over-year growth in September and December will be consistent at down 5%. Ultimately, investors are likely to look past any December-quarter delivery miss, as the results should suggest the auto business is beginning to stabilize.

The WSJ reported that OpenAI is looking to raise $100B at a $830B post-money valuation by the end of March 2026. Despite the hype, there is a sound case that OpenAI is attractively valued at the new valuation and we believe it could realistically double or triple in value over the next few years.

A lot happened in 2025 when it comes to robotaxis, which makes it fitting to mark where things stand today between Waymo and Tesla. This year, Waymo moved beyond the pilot phase and entered the scaling phase, with a fully driverless service operating in five US cities and a fleet of around 2.5k vehicles. Tesla’s Robotaxi is running a fleet of around 50 vehicles, largely supervised in Austin and the Bay Area. While Waymo has the lead, the market remains nascent, likely exiting 2026 with about 1% of rides in the US, which means Tesla has plenty of time to catch up. For 2026, it will all come down to how the no safety driver Austin test goes. If that goes well, look out Waymo.