I believe we're still in the second inning of AI, and shares of NVDA will underperform the broader silicon trade over the next six months. Nvidia reports on May 20th, and expectations began to get amped up two months ago at the March GTC event, where Jensen projected the company would see at least $1T in cumulative data center revenue through CY27, which implies about 40% growth, vs. the Street currently at 32%. Since those March comments, NVDA is up 18%, vs. AMD up 129% and INTC up 183%. The issue is that investors know the April quarter will be strong and that numbers for CY26 will likely increase by 10%, but they struggle with the the law of large numbers resulting in slowing growth next year and the risk of custom silicon. Unfortunately for NVDA, the company likely won't be able to ease those fears on the April call.

Apple delivered a solid March quarter and guided June revenue 7% above expectations. The stock reaction, up 4%, was muted relative to the guide, which reflects a concern that the June quarter is the last quarter of the latest iPhone supercycle. The good news is the Street is already reflecting a slowdown in iPhone in FY27 to 6% growth from an average of 20% from Sep-25 through June-26. The bigger question is, can Apple Intelligence, starting in the form of a new Siri, which rolls out later this year, break the iPhone supercycle narrative and drive incremental revenue starting next year? I believe the answer is it can. If successful, that will likely rerate AAPL's multiple.

Meta’s March quarter rhymed with results over the past year in that they have shown that AI is already having a meaningful impact on growth. March revenue was up 33% y/y, compared to March of 2025, which was up 16%. It's clear that Meta and Google are the two best examples of AI's impact on a business at scale. Despite all of the positives around AI driving higher growth, shares of META traded down 7% on capex guidance that was 7% higher than what they projected three months ago. That translates to CY26 capex likely being up 93% y/y. While the current view is to be negative on more capex for companies that don't have a cloud business, I believe over time investors will change their view and will reward Meta for their infrastructure investments, given it increases the chances that they can grow revenue higher for longer.

Tesla’s March quarter was better than the stock’s post-call reaction suggests, with shares essentially flat in after-hours trading. Profitability came in well ahead of expectations, and delivery commentary for the rest of the year pointed to growth in line with the Street. However, the headline was the Capex guide for 2026, which came in 25% higher than what they said last quarter. My take is that this level of increase in Capex is a good thing, putting more space between Tesla and its competitors, though at this point, I'm not sure who those competitors even are.

Investors knew this was coming, as evidenced by AAPL shares being down only 0.5% on the news that Cook is moving into the chairman role. This opens the door for a new investor conversation around Apple and AI. Fifteen years ago, Cook began to orchestrate an AAPL multiple re-rating around Services that started with a new narrative. I expect Ternus will take a page out of that book and shift the stock narrative to show that they can win in AI. I'll be watching for success with the new Siri later this year, additions of leadership from AI-first companies, and maintenance of their gold standard culture around product quality as evidence that it's working.

The fundamentals of the AI trade continue to mostly exceed expectations, yet investors remain unimpressed. In the two trading days following better-than-expected earnings, ASML shares fell approximately 7%. Similarly, following its own beat, TSMC saw shares drop about 3% in a single day, all while the Nasdaq rose 2% over the same period. The bottom line: AI chip fundamentals are largely outperforming projections, but investors aren't rewarding these companies for their results. The reason? They fear the party is about to slow down or end entirely. The question I’m struggling with is: What will it take for these companies to win back investor favor?

I’ve obsessed about all things Apple for more than 20 years. When asked for Apple’s defining achievement, I’m tempted to talk about the iPhone. In reality, the answer is much deeper than a single product. Apple’s true achievement is the culture Jobs instilled that made the Mac and iPhone possible and has sustained the business long after the launch's. As Apple looks toward the decades ahead, investors can rest easy knowing that Jobs’ product discipline remains embedded in the culture, and that culture will be the foundation for future hit products.