Google Search has been under threat ever since AI chatbots changed how people discover information late in 2022. That matters because Search drives about 55% of the company's revenue. At Google's I/O 2026 developer conference this week, it was clear that Google has solved for the chatbot headwind. The company is increasingly turning Search into an AI-native action layer, with agents, commerce rails, and subscriptions. All that means that Search can continue to grow at 10% plus for the next few years (compared to 19% in March, and around 11% on average over the past three years).

Nvidia’s April quarter was another reminder that the AI infrastructure trade is still in the second inning. While shares trading down 1.7% in trading the following day, hides the bigger point. Nvidia’s core revenue growth accelerated to 109% y/y in April from 89% in December, adjusting for China, and July guidance implies about 95% growth before what will likely be another beat. The harder question is not whether Nvidia’s business is exceptional, it is whether the stock can keep outperforming given the law of large numbers.

The U.S. approval for Nvidia to sell H200 GPUs into China creates a call option for an incremental 3-5% of revenue in CY26 and CY27. At the high end, I believe China could add 10% to CY27 estimates. I caution that, even though China can drive some upside, the unpredictable nature of future China revenue likely means NVDA won't get credit for that upside. In the end, Nvidia doesn't need China because growth has accelerated without China. In the April quarter that will be reported this Wednesday, May 20, the Street is expecting revenue growth of 79%. Removing the China revenue from April of last year to get an apples-to-apples growth rate, sales are expected to be up 100% y/y, up from 89% growth reported in the recent January quarter, adjusting for China.

I believe we're still in the second inning of AI, and shares of NVDA will underperform the broader silicon trade over the next six months. Nvidia reports on May 20th, and expectations began to get amped up two months ago at the March GTC event, where Jensen projected the company would see at least $1T in cumulative data center revenue through CY27, which implies about 40% growth, vs. the Street currently at 32%. Since those March comments, NVDA is up 18%, vs. AMD up 129% and INTC up 183%. The issue is that investors know the April quarter will be strong and that numbers for CY26 will likely increase by 10%, but they struggle with the the law of large numbers resulting in slowing growth next year and the risk of custom silicon. Unfortunately for NVDA, the company likely won't be able to ease those fears on the April call.

Apple delivered a solid March quarter and guided June revenue 7% above expectations. The stock reaction, up 4%, was muted relative to the guide, which reflects a concern that the June quarter is the last quarter of the latest iPhone supercycle. The good news is the Street is already reflecting a slowdown in iPhone in FY27 to 6% growth from an average of 20% from Sep-25 through June-26. The bigger question is, can Apple Intelligence, starting in the form of a new Siri, which rolls out later this year, break the iPhone supercycle narrative and drive incremental revenue starting next year? I believe the answer is it can. If successful, that will likely rerate AAPL's multiple.

Meta’s March quarter rhymed with results over the past year in that they have shown that AI is already having a meaningful impact on growth. March revenue was up 33% y/y, compared to March of 2025, which was up 16%. It's clear that Meta and Google are the two best examples of AI's impact on a business at scale. Despite all of the positives around AI driving higher growth, shares of META traded down 7% on capex guidance that was 7% higher than what they projected three months ago. That translates to CY26 capex likely being up 93% y/y. While the current view is to be negative on more capex for companies that don't have a cloud business, I believe over time investors will change their view and will reward Meta for their infrastructure investments, given it increases the chances that they can grow revenue higher for longer.

Tesla’s March quarter was better than the stock’s post-call reaction suggests, with shares essentially flat in after-hours trading. Profitability came in well ahead of expectations, and delivery commentary for the rest of the year pointed to growth in line with the Street. However, the headline was the Capex guide for 2026, which came in 25% higher than what they said last quarter. My take is that this level of increase in Capex is a good thing, putting more space between Tesla and its competitors, though at this point, I'm not sure who those competitors even are.