Nvidia

It's been two days since Nvidia delivered January results and April-quarter guidance that cleared both Street and whisper expectations, yet the stock has traded down 9% since earnings compared to the Nasdaq being down 2%. Investors are already looking through what will be another monster year in 2026 and landing on anxiety over what 2027 will hold. The biggest risk to the stock is that fundamentals continue to exceed expectations and the "anxiety year" gets pushed out to 2028, resulting in shares remaining rangebound. As for the broader AI takeaway, Nvidia’s guide is the latest evidence that we're still in the early innings of the AI buildout.

Heading into Nvidia’s earnings next Wednesday, expectations are being shaped by two developments over the past month: AI models are showing clearer utility, and the hyperscalers guided to a bigger infrastructure buildout. During that time, Nvidia growth estimates for CY26 have increased from 50% to 55%. The demand story is well understood, yet NVDA shares are up only about 5% over the past month versus the Nasdaq roughly flat. The disconnect between the bullish updates and modest share price increase highlights that the real debate is what growth looks like in 2027 and 2028. Ultimately, investors have to decide what inning of the AI buildout we are in, if it's the 5th inning, 2027 growth should look more modest, and if it is the 2nd inning, which I believe, Nvidia’s growth outlook over the next several years remains robust.

Nvidia gave three incremental updates at CES that pointed to upside this year. The first was Jensen’s comments in the keynote twice describing demand as “skyrocketing.” The second was CFO Colette Kress saying at the JPMorgan fireside that their previous target calling for a $500B data center revenue outlook through 2026 has “definitely gotten larger.” The third was Jensen’s comment that demand for the relaunch of the H20 in China was “quite high.” Shares of NVDA shrugged off the good news, trading down 4% in the three days following the updates, compared to the Nasdaq which was flat, underscoring investor concern that it's a function of time before growth stalls. I believe growth will be higher for longer, driven near term by the hyperscalers and long term by Physical AI.

The 2% decline in NVDA shares following October results and January guidance, both of which were above whisper expectations, reflects investor concerns that, when it comes to AI, it can’t get any better. While the concern is understandable, most signs suggest that growth for Nvidia and the broader AI infrastructure buildout is still in its infancy.

I remain positive on shares of NVDA and believe over the next two years growth will be higher for longer. That said, the cross currents around next week’s earnings set up a Catch-22 for the AI complex, because stronger guidance can amplify worries about overspending, while a modest raise can be read as the first sign that growth is normalizing faster than expected. As for changes to Street estimates, Jensen’s comments on October 28 suggest the consensus CY26 growth estimates will increase from the current 39% y/y growth to 45%.

Over the past two months, Nvidia has made five major investments totaling $15B in near-term commitments and $100B in long-term commitments. During that same period, the company has also invested in approximately seven private companies and established twelve new partnerships. In total, Nvidia has made about twenty-five strategic announcements. The common thread that ties them together: Jensen Huang’s belief that the future of work is shifting from tools to bots.

Here are the five pressure points for this Wednesday and Thursday’s earnings from Google, Meta, Microsoft, Amazon, and Apple (and an Nvidia bonus). Big picture: The setup carries more risk than it did three months ago, as investor confidence is notably higher heading into this round of reports. That said, the key takeaway will likely remain that we are still in the early stages of AI adoption, and the largest technology companies continue to hold their ground.

Shares of Nvidia are down 6% since reporting July earnings compared to the Nasdaq flat. The sell-off reflects disappointment around the October revenue guide versus the whisper number and growing concerns about customer concentration. Looking forward, growth in CY26 will once again depend on hyperscaler capex trends, excluding Meta because the growth expectation is already sky high for next year. If Microsoft, Google, and Amazon maintain their 7% capex growth outlook, Nvidia should meet consensus growth estimates for CY26 of 31%. If those companies increase capex by 25%, Nvidia’s growth could reach 36%.

Shares of NVDA are down 3% in after-hours on a fractional miss in July datacenter revenue and a October revenue outlook that fell below the whisper. Adjusting for the $2B–$5B in China H20 revenue excluded from the October guide, the outlook lands about 2%-7% above the October revenue whisper. Additionally, Jensen dropped a nugget on the call hinting that growth in CY26 could be closer to 50%, well above the Street's 29% expectation. The bottom line is we're still early in the AI buildout, and growth next year will be higher than most expect.

The Grinch's rant about hating "the noise, noise, noise" will resonate with Nvidia investors next week. This quarter will have a lot of noise, much of it around how much of the China H20 catchup will be softened by Lutnick insulting China leadership, when a separate China chip based on Blackwell be available, and how the U.S. 15% China revenue share will impact margins. Cutting through the noise, the likely takeaway will be that Street growth rates for calendar 2026 are too low. The Street is currently expecting 27% top line growth next year compared to 55% this year. I expect the Street will revise the CY26 outlook to up 30-35%.

I believe Nvidia can maintain gross profit dollars on its China business (13-15% of revenue) despite the revenue-sharing arrangement with the US government, because they should be able to raise prices by about 18% without hurting demand. This likely settles the China discussion until Nvidia releases a scaled-down Blackwell chip for the Chinese market, an area where Trump has left the door open for changes to revenue share percentages. The biggest remaining question is what this means for Tesla and Apple.

Shares of NVDA are up 4% on the news that it will resume sales of the H20 in China, but this move understates the true impact. I believe this development will add 10% to the Street’s revenue estimates over the next four quarters. For CY26, analysts were previously expecting 25% growth. Following the announcement, consensus for those analyst that have updated their models now calls for 30% growth. I believe CY26 will ultimately see growth of 35% or more. The bigger takeaway: China's demand for the H20 highlights that the AI investment cycle is still in its early innings, with a long runway ahead.