My near-term rule is: when investors are nervous, it’s time to be bullish; when they’re bullish, it’s time to be cautious. My sense is that the bullish outlook among big-tech investors entering this week presents some risk.

Taking a step back, the performance of these five companies over the past three months has been mixed. META and MSFT shares are up roughly 5%, while AMZN is down 2%, compared to the Nasdaq, which is up 11%. On the other hand, AAPL is up 24% and GOOGL is up 39%. In other words, while AAPL and GOOGL are carrying high expectations, investors also appear optimistic about Meta’s ad business and AWS growth in September.

Looking back at expectations heading into June earnings, the focus was on Google Search, which was anticipated to show slowing growth, and the iPhone business, particularly in China, which was expected to remain weak. In reality, Google’s search growth accelerated from March to June, and the iPhone posted its strongest growth since FY21, even after adjusting for the pull-forward of revenue from U.S. consumers anticipating a tariff-driven price increase. As an aside, Apple’s China business grew at 4.4% in June after being down 2.3% in March and down 11% in December of 2024.

When it comes to the AI trade broadly, and the semiconductor trade more specifically, it all comes down to CapEx outlook.

Over the past six quarters, out-year growth rates have consistently moved higher. This has allowed semiconductor providers to exceed expectations despite rising numbers, effectively defying the law of large numbers. This dynamic makes sense given that companies like Nvidia derive just over 63% of their revenue from six key customers (Meta, Microsoft, Google, Amazon, Oracle, xAI), up from 55% a year ago.

So where does the 2026 CapEx bar sit heading into earnings? With the whisper numbers, not the in-print estimates.

Here are the current estimates:

It’s worth noting the gap between Meta’s commentary in the June earnings call and Susan Li’s remarks at the Goldman Tech Conference on September 9th. Meta indicated growth of over 40% next year, well ahead of Google, Amazon and Microsoft, who did not provide 2026 guidance.

This left analysts to set the growth bar for Google and Amazon at just over 10% y/y. In reality, Meta’s large CapEx growth target has set the tone. I believe Google and Amazon will need to signal that their CapEx growth next year will exceed 20% from 2025. I expect the it will be a neutral if Microsoft maintains its estimate of 22% CapEx growth for CY26.

As a level set, here are the in-print Street estimates for the cloud providers:

Notably, the Street expects both Azure and Google Cloud (GCP) revenue growth to slow q/q, while Amazon is expected to accelerate.

I believe this represents a realistic baseline, with whisper numbers generally aligning with the in-print expectations. If Azure and Google approach the growth rates seen in June, investors should be satisfied, as September growth would then exceed what was reported in March 2025. Conversely, the AWS bar calls for a step-up in growth: the expected 18.1% increase (up from 17.5% in June) remains materially below the expected growth rates for Azure and Google (30% and 38%, respectively).

The message of being supply-constrained is likely to continue. Another factor contributing to high cloud expectations is that, last quarter, all three major providers flagged supply-capacity constraints (hardware, datacenter build-out, AI infrastructure) as limiting factors in fully accelerating growth. In other words, they indicated growth would have been higher absent these constraints, which elevates expectations for September and December. I expect the messaging around supply constraints to remain consistent across all three providers in the upcoming earnings reports.

Bottom line: I expect the favorable December guide to be a positive for shares of AAPL.

Taking a step back, the iPhone is on a roll. Beginning in the December quarter of 2022 through March of 2025, growth had been mostly flat, averaging a 0.5% y/y decline. In June, however, it sprang back to life, rising 13%, aided in part by a couple of percentage points of growth (Deepwater estimates) from customers pulling forward purchases ahead of potential U.S. tariffs. Cook noted that roughly 1% of the company’s overall 10% growth came from this pull-forward effect.

Here’s a look back at iPhone growth and in-print expectations.

For the September quarter, the Street now expects 9% y/y iPhone growth, up from roughly 6–7% just after the prior quarter’s report. A closer look at estimate revisions shows most of the change occurred in the first three weeks of September. Since then, iPhone-related news has continued to be positive, even though analysts have not materially adjusted the consensus. Notable indicators including JD.com comments from China, improved lead times across the board, and third-party data from Counterpoint, suggest September will be a strong quarter.

I believe the recent positive developments have raised the bar for this print. My guess is the whisper number is around 10% growth.

For the December quarter, Street expectations call for 6% growth, which I sense aligns with buy-side expectations. I expect iPhone commentary on the earnings call for  December will indicate growth above 6%, closer to 8%.

Given that just over half of Nvidia’s revenue comes from Google, Amazon, Meta, and Microsoft, the buy side is likely to recalibrate Nvidia’s growth expectations for next year based on comments from these companies this week.

Here’s the sensitivity:

• A 2% upside to Nvidia’s revenue next year could occur if Microsoft, Google, and Amazon signal CapEx growth of 15% next year, compared with just over 10% currently.

• A 5% upside to Nvidia’s revenue next year could occur if Microsoft, Google, and Amazon signal CapEx growth of 25% next year, compared with just over 10% currently.

• A 12% upside to Nvidia’s revenue next year could occur if Microsoft, Google, and Amazon signal CapEx growth of over 40% next year, compared with just over 10% currently.

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