Company

Earnings Takeaways

Move ± %

Apple

AI: No updates on timing for a personalized Siri, which marks the full capabilities of Apple Intelligence, likely not until early 2026. We learned that Apple is going to be building more of its own small language models, which means more of their AI future is in their own hands. Additionally, Eddy Cue's comments to the DOJ suggest Apple is working on its own generative search product.

Stock: The March quarter and June outlook were both solid amidst of incredible headwinds. Investors are still concerned that the business will slow after the June quarter. It's becoming a "show me" tariff story.

(5%)

Amazon

AI: AWS and capex are the two central AI topics. The AI component of AWS continues to grow at "triple digits", in line with Dec-24's growth. We estimate that growth is about 120% and AI workloads only account for about 5% of AWS revenue, which illustrates how early we are. As for capex, the company reiterated spending plans that they first outlined at the end of 2024, targeting about $105B.

Stock: AWS growth is the biggest driver of AMZN shares. Looking at the back half of the year, we believe the Street's 18% AWS growth estimate is too low because capacity is increasing and demand for hosted AI is still in its infancy (accounting for about 5% of AWS revenue today).

(2%)

Google

AI: AI Overviews continue to have the same ad monetization rate as traditional Search, unchanged since the initial rollout last September. Overviews have been rolled out to 1.5B monthly, up from 1B users in Oct-24. As a point of reference, we estimate Google has 3.5B monthly Search users. That positive development is more than offset by Search losing share to generative AI, as highlighted by Eddy Cue's testimony. Additionally, Waymo now operates 250k weekly rides across multiple cities, up 5x from a year ago.

Stock: We believe AI is debatably working against Google. The company has a challenge ahead in overhauling the Search results page to be more streamlined while growing revenue at the same time.

4%

Meta

AI: I believe Meta is the best example of a company benefiting from AI at scale as evidenced by daily users increasing 6% y/y, versus 5% over the previous two quarters. Recent reports by the Wall Street Journal indicate that Meta’s behemoth AI model is delayed by around six months — a setback, but one that does not change the company’s commitment to building toward Artificial General Intelligence.

Stock: The near- intermediate-, and long-term revenue prospects will benefit from AI. In practice, the company is making it easier to create, discover, and manage content.

4%

Microsoft

AI: While 16 points of Azure’s 33% growth came from AI (up from 13 pts last quarter), most of the growth still came from core (non‑AI) cloud. Similar to AWS, Azure's AI growth is constrained by GPU supply, which should ease in the coming quarters. We estimate Azure revenue in FY25 will be $65B, of which $7B will be AI related.

Stock: While shares lack dynamic upside, they offer downside protection given Microsoft is a safe haven in the midst of tariff risk and still offers sustained revenue growth in the mid-teens driven by a combination of Office, Azure, and AI.

7%

Nvidia

AI: The Pressure Point remains the pace of infrastructure buildout in 2026. Four of the four companies (Amazon, Google, Meta, Microsoft) that matter in the capex conversation all reiterated or raised their spending outlook for this year. That spending is now expected to be up on average 47% y/y in FY25. That compares to expectations of 40% growth back in February.

Stock: Nvidia remains the clear leader in AI infrastructure, and as long as demand continues to outpace supply, its near-term growth outlook is intact. While U.S. export restrictions and rising Chinese competition pose long-term risks, global AI buildouts continue to accelerate. The key question for the stock is whether Nvidia can maintain its dominance as hyperscalers develop custom chips and supply constraints begin to ease.

N/A

Tesla

AI: The biggest update was the company reiterating the launch of the robotaxi service in Austin in June. Separately, the company added 650m new FSD miles driven in the March quarter, compared to 900m in Dec-24 and 450m in Sep-24. The takeaway for FSD: while usage is lumpy, the company is gathering mounds of useful data to pave the way to unsupervised, which Elon now believes will be available by year-end. Regarding Optimus, no material updates. The company reiterated it's goal of 1m units but added a 2029 timeline.

Stock: Tesla is the best positioned company in the physical AI space. Tesla's CFO says 2025 is a "pivotal year", which means it's a throwaway year for the stock. We believe the results of the next three quarters can be a mess and shares can still move higher as long as Elon continues to sell the vision of increased revenue growth starting next year. Odds are he'll pull that off.

7%

Company

Key Takeaway

Move ± %

Vertiv

AI: Vertiv continues to gain market share as AI infrastructure demand remains strong. The most encouraging recent indicator was order growth of +13% year-over-year, which beat expectations despite lapping a very difficult comparison from Q1 last year (+60%). There had been speculation that order growth could turn negative, but Vertiv outperformed. Backlog rose 10% sequentially, and the book-to-bill ratio reached 1.4, strong indicators that support continued AI infrastructure momentum. Vertiv is executing well amid data center slowdown concerns, benefiting from AI tailwinds and faster lead times than peers.

Stock: The company laid out a clear plan to mitigate tariff effects. Vertiv plans to raise prices on some orders where contracts allow and shift sourcing to avoid high-tariff regions using its global factories. This approach reflects notable improvement in Vertiv’s operational flexibility and supply chain resiliency, especially when compared to the disruptions experienced during COVID. The ability to maintain full-year earnings guidance despite margin pressure speaks to disciplined execution and supports the stock’s longer-term thesis amid ongoing geopolitical and cost volatility.

9%

Confluent

AI: Confluent is positioned as a foundational layer for real-time data infrastructure, which is increasingly critical for AI workloads. Strategic partnerships, including an expanded integration with Databricks, signal a push to become the connective tissue between real-time operational data and AI systems. While AI-related contributions aren’t yet fully baked into guidance, early traction and rising enterprise interest suggest long-term tailwinds.

Stock: Management blamed short-term customer behavior, large accounts shifting from new workloads to optimization, rather than macro weakness. Historically, these patterns rebound, but Confluent opted for a conservative stance this time. Underlying metrics remain solid, with 117% net retention, growing $1M+ customers, and cloud revenue up 34%. With a path to profitable growth and expanding enterprise relevance, the reset appears more about expectation management than a change in demand fundamentals.

(10%)

Broadcom

AI: Broadcom’s AI-related semiconductor business continues to accelerate, with Jan-25 chip revenue up 77% y/y, well above guidance, and management expectations of 44% growth in Apr-25 as hyperscalers expand their AI data centers. Broadcom is investing in next-gen 2 nm XPU processors to capture sustained demand.

Stock: Shares have gained ~56% over the past year, reflecting investor confidence in Broadcom’s AI-fueled growth and solid execution (with additional support from ongoing dividends and share buybacks).

N/A

Arista

AI: Arista is capitalizing on the boom in AI data centers, targeting roughly $1.5B in AI-driven revenue for 2025 (including about $750m from AI back-end network gear). The company touts its role as a leading “network innovator” for AI infrastructure, with new 800 Gbps switching platforms coming to market and hyperscale customers deploying Arista’s technology to build some of the world’s largest AI clusters.

Stock: Arista’s management raised its 2025 revenue outlook to ~$8.2B (~17% growth) on continued strong demand from cloud and AI customers. The company is also actively repurchasing shares (over $400m bought back in 2024, with ~$921m remaining authorized), signaling confidence in its trajectory and providing support to the stock.

(6%)

Atlassian

AI: Atlassian expanded its AI platform “Rovo” across all premium and enterprise cloud editions of Jira, Confluence and Jira Service Management. Rovo delivers generative AI features – including advanced search, contextual chat, and 20+ prebuilt AI agents – to automate work across these tools, underscoring Atlassian’s push to embed AI deeply into its collaboration software.

Stock: Investor focus now shifts to whether Atlassian can prove that giving Rovo away today reignites the >20 % CAGR through FY-27 the team just reaffirmed; adoption is soaring, but monetization is still largely in the future, so any sign of slower paid-seat or premium upgrades could challenge that long-term growth promise. At the same time, management has flagged a near-term dip in margins as it ramps AI COGS and steps up enterprise sales and R&D spend, with blended gross margin expected to drift lower over the next two years—leaving the stock sensitive to any slippage in cloud-gross-margin gains that are supposed to offset that drag.

(18%)

Celestica

AI: Celestica is extending its reach in AI hardware manufacturing, recently securing new contracts to build high-speed 800G optical transceiver modules and advanced AI compute systems for a leading cloud customer. The company expects a next-generation AI/ML server program for that hyperscaler to ramp in the second half of 2025, and it continues to gain market share in AI compute, networking, and rack-level solutions across its big cloud clients.

Stock: After two guidance raises in three months, expectations are high: 2025 targets of $10.85B revenue and $5.00 EPS assume hyperscalers keep spending and that new 800G switches plus the sole-source AI/ML server ramp hit volume in 3Q-4Q25. Any slip in those ramps—whether from component shortages (management already pegs 1.6T switch volume to the back half of 2026) or delayed hyperscaler capex—would undermine the “beat-and-raise” narrative that has powered the rally. Tariff policy is another swing factor: the 2025 outlook explicitly assumes no new duties beyond today’s temporary exemptions, with Celestica planning to pass through any costs; a re-escalation could squeeze timing, mix, or margins and test the company’s ability to keep adjusted operating margin above 7%.

(2%)

Palantir

AI: Palantir reports “unrelenting” demand for its new Artificial Intelligence Platform (AIP), which lets enterprises deploy custom AI agents on their private data. Major clients have openly praised AIP’s impact – Palantir noted that firms like AIG, BP, and Hertz highlighted AIP’s transformative value – and one retail customer rolled out AI-powered workflows to 4,000 stores in under eight months using the platform.

Stock: Palantir significantly raised its full-year 2025 guidance to ~36% revenue growth after posting a 39% y/y jump in Mar-25 sales. Nevertheless, the stock dipped about 8% following the earnings announcement suggesting that lofty expectations were largely priced in after Palantir’s recent rally (investors were looking for an even bigger beat).

(10%)