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OpenAI Sends Chrome a Wake-Up Call; Google Has the Tools to Answer
Google, OpenAI
OpenAI announced Atlas, their first browser. The product is built on familiar tabs, which will make it inviting to Chrome users, and delivers a step-function improvement in functionality, with better personalization and agents. While there was no mention of monetizing search, the long-term impact of OpenAI on Google’s cash cow remains an open question. In the end, Atlas sets a new bar, one that Google will likely be able to meet, which is central to maintaining and growing their search business.

Key Takeaways

Atlas is the most advanced browser, for now.
Shares of GOOG rallied about 2% once the event ended, based on no mention of search monetization and the new features generally seen as something Google could replicate.
I expect Google will have positive things to say about search next week, which will be a near-term sigh of relief. The long-term questions will remain.
1

Meet Atlas

OpenAI made good on months of rumors that they would launch their own browser. At the core, the browser is familiar enough to Chrome and Safari that the average user would find it welcoming. Under the hood, it is a step function ahead of Chrome when it comes to memory and agents.

Memory: The idea is that Atlas can look over and remember everything inside your browser. That includes web search activity, Gmail, Docs, and hosted apps. That’s important because, in theory, it should deliver a highly personalized experience, specifically the ability to find what you’re looking for, whether it’s an old web page, hosted doc, or email. I believe there is significant value in a browser with memory, and that Atlas will push Google to get more aggressive at building memory and personalization in Chrome.

Agents: The agent mode within Atlas felt a lot like the Operator agent that OpenAI launched last January. The two demos, converting a doc into a CRM tool and planning a shopping list. were similar to use cases we’ve played with in Operator earlier this year. Over time, agents will unlock real AI utility, giving the ability to direct your browser to do work online. Importantly, it only accesses info on your browser, hosted apps, and the web. Google is well aware of the role agents will play, and I expect they will quickly respond with similar features.

While there was no mention of monetization, the topic of OpenAI’s impact on Google’s search business still looms large.

2

The impact on Google Search

Shares of GOOG rallied about 2% once the event ended, based on no mention of search monetization and the new features generally seen as something Google could replicate.

That said, the topic of how OpenAI could affect Search growth over the long term still looms large. It’s important to note that while OpenAI did not mention plans to monetize search, that reality is highly likely in the next year. Additionally, OpenAI does not have to monetize search to impact Google’s business. Just by pulling attention away from Google to ChatGPT, that effect will occur.

3

September quarter Preview

I expect Google will have good things to say about search in September and the outlook for December. On October 10th, Liz Reid, head of Google Search, joined the WSJ’s ‘Bold Names’ podcast. In a vacuum, it would have been a non-event. In the context of investor fears around Google Search being displaced by generative AI, and the proximity of her comments to Google reporting September results (Oct 29), the podcast took on new meaning. Her message was simple: AI has been a positive for Google’s search business.

Here’s our Google earnings preview.

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