The road to purchasing Meta Display led through a local Best Buy, where a mandatory demo was required to ensure proper fitting. In the end, I found the technology impressive, the use case still limited, and the fashion grade below average. The bottom line: Meta is making the right move by investing $20B annually into Reality Labs, but the return on that investment will take years.

When I hear about a sale, I wonder if the price was marked up just before the event. To better understand the true average sale price during Amazon’s recent Prime Big Deal Days, we spot-checked 50 random items on the sale day and rechecked prices a week later. We believe the week-later price reflects the true price, given that only a third of the items returned to their “original price.” On average, Prime Day yielded a 24% savings for shoppers compared to the price a week later. This savings is higher than the 16% we measured in 2023 for Cyber Monday, a small data point suggesting retailers are getting more aggressive with discounts.

Last Friday, Liz Reid, head of Google Search, joined the WSJ’s 'Bold Names' podcast. In a vacuum, it would have been a non-event. In the context of investor fears around Google Search being displaced by generative AI, and the proximity of her comments to Google reporting September results (Oct 29), the podcast took on new meaning. Her message was simple: AI has been a positive for Google’s search business. Search accounts for just over half of revenue, and I estimate close to 75% of profits. Even though shares of GOOG are up 33% over the past three months (Nasdaq up 9%), the stock still trades at a 15% discount to other Mag 7 comps.

We’re now three weeks into the iPhone 17 cycle, and investor sentiment remains upbeat despite the October 3 Jefferies downgrade. Since launch, the global lead time data reinforces this optimism: wait times suggest demand is running modestly ahead of last year. Together, these datapoints support the case that iPhone unit growth will return next year, modestly exceeding the Street’s 5% growth consensus.

Tesla surprised investors by announcing that the rumored cheaper, slimmed down Model Y is essentially the same as the standard version, just with fewer color, wheel and seat options, priced at $40K, down 11% from $45K. This move signals that Tesla is becoming more aggressive in selling the Model Y in a post–tax credit world, which should help deliveries grow 16% next year (per Street estimates) compared to a 9% decline this year. I believe a truly affordable $30K model is still in the works for 2027, which will be key to winning autonomy.

Apple’s decision to shelve Vision Pro in favor of glasses underscores that the optimal AI-first form factor is still unsettled. Apple is now following Meta’s push into glasses, while Jony Ive joined OpenAI in May to pursue a different path: a screenless pocket companion. I believe the phone will remain the dominant AI-first device over the next three years. Beyond that, the shift will move toward pocket companions that work alongside phones and watches. Glasses, despite Apple’s pivot, are likely capped at a few hundred million units a year, limited by comfort, privacy, and fashion.

September deliveries of 497k were well ahead of the 475k high-end of the whisper, up 7% y/y after being down 13% in June and March. I believe the vast majority of the upside was driven by a 35% quarter over quarter jump in US sales from the tax credit, which in theory means investors should largely throw out the positive number. My "throw it out" logic misses a bigger point; the future will be autonomy and the ability to get EV units in the market profitably is a key competitive advantage. On that measure, the September deliveries are a long-term win for the company.