The focus now shifts to June deliveries. While FactSet consensus calls for 401k deliveries (up 4% y/y), Tesla’s company-compiled consensus is 406k (up 6% y/y), with the high end of estimates at roughly 460k.

The key metric will be Model 3/Y deliveries. Because June 2025 included Model S and X deliveries that will be largely absent this quarter, the reported growth rate understates underlying demand. On an apples-to-apples basis, adjusting for the discontinued Model S/X, the 406k consensus implies Model 3 & Y deliveries would be up roughly 8% y/y, compared to 6% in March.

It’s worth mentioning some investors may downplay the strength in deliveries in June, attributing to a one-time tailwind from high gas prices. While that reality did have a positive impact on results, we believe the majority of strength is coming from consumers slowly returning to EVs along with DOGE brand damage easing from a year ago.

We believe there is upside to the 406k Street consensus and expect Tesla to deliver 420k vehicles. While that is below the high end of estimates at roughly 460k, we do not believe Tesla needs to reach the highest expectations for shares to respond favorably.

At 420k deliveries, reported growth would be 9% y/y and, adjusting for the discontinued Model S/X, Model 3 & Y deliveries would be up approximately 12% y/y, representing Tesla’s strongest underlying delivery growth since December 2023.

Given the tough comp from the Sep-25 EV credit pull-forward, the Street is looking for Sep-26 deliveries to be down 9%. I believe deliveries will be flat-ish as delivery growth will continue to be better than expected.

As a reminder, Sep-25 deliveries were up 7% y/y after being down 13% in both the March and June quarters of 2025. That upside was impacted by sales getting pulled from December into September, which resulted in December deliveries being down 16% y/y.

As a final point, the Street is looking for 12% y/y growth in Dec-26 and we believe that is the right expectation.

With deliveries trending the right way, the bigger shift is how Tesla sells the car. Management now calls FSD the product and the vehicle the delivery mechanism. And it’s showing up in the numbers: active FSD subscriptions hit 1.28 million in Mar-26, up 51% y/y, up from 38% y/y growth in the December quarter. That’s still only around 14% of the roughly 9.2 million cars Tesla has delivered, so the base left to convert is huge.

The catalysts are lining up. FSD is approved in the Netherlands, with EU-wide clearance expected in Q2 and China tracking to Q3, which management expects to lift adoption and pull vehicle demand. And on June 30, Tesla began public-road tests of a production Cybercab with no steering wheel or pedals in Austin, on the same software as the unsupervised Robotaxi service now live in three cities (Austin, Houston, and Dallas).

Bottom line: don’t overthink the delivery number. What resets the multiple is FSD monetization and a credible path to unsupervised FSD, and both moved this quarter. Trending deliveries is just the gravy on top.

Disclaimer