Phone Cycle Still Off to a Solid Start Despite Falling Lead Times

Gene Munster, Brian BakerOctober 8, 2026

On Sep 18th, I wrote about the lead times for the iPhone 18 Pro lineup and concluded that Apple's decision to split the cycle is working. At the time, the Pro lead times were running 15% longer than last year and the Pro Max 18% longer. Since Duo will cannibalize some Pro demand, the higher lead times suggest that some would be iPhone 18 buyers are opting for Pro models, offsetting much of the cannibalization. Since then, lead times have dropped and are now 31% shorter for the Pro and 1% longer for the Pro Max. While the drop is concerning, the fact that the Pro Max remains in line with last year should be viewed as a bigger positive than the falloff in Pro lead times, given it's still surprising that the lead times for both models aren't 20% lower than last year in the face of the Duo launch (pre-orders started on Sep 16).

Key Takeaways

Both the Pro and Pro Max lead times have slipped from a strong start. The negative that Pro lead times are down 30% is more than offset by the positive that the Pro Max is still in line with last year in the face of the Duo launch.

The combined Pro series is still averaging about three weeks, essentially inline from last year.

Duo's opening lead times between October 16 and 23 and should spike out of the gate due to tight supply. The true test is what are they running a month from now.

Pro & Pro Max Lead Times

The Pro. On launch day the 18 Pro lead times across eight countries was running 15% longer than the iPhone 17 Pro a year ago. A week later it was still up 15%. By the two-week mark it had flipped t0 5% shorter than last year, and today it’s 31% shorter.

My take: This is concerning, but somewhat to be expected. Going into the cycle, I predicted we would see lead times 20% lower than last year given the carrot of the new Duo would pull former Pro buyers up to the Duo.

The Max. On launch day the 18 Pro Max lead times across eight countries was running 18% longer than the iPhone 17 Pro Max a year ago. A week later it was still up 8%. By the two-week it was 6% higher, and today its 1% higher.

My take: This is a win. My guess is a sizable, maybe 20%, of last years early Pro Max buyers are holding off for the Duo. That would cause the Pro Max lead times to be down around 20% year over year. Instead they’re currently running about flat from last year. Either one of two things is going on:

I’m wrong. Last years Pro Max buyers are still this years Pro Max buyers. In this case it sets up a disappointing start to for Duo, given the new form factor failed to pull the high end base even higher.
A measurable portion of last years Pro Max buyers are waiting for Duo, and yet lead times are currently running stable because Pro buyers are moving to Pro Max, or the standard buyers are jumping to Pro and Pro Max. Those buyers would normally be opting for the iPhone 18, but since it won’t ship until next spring, they’re deciding to buy in the fall with a higher priced model. In this case, that’s a win for the FY27 iPhone revenue, and means the Street’s current 8% growth target is too low.

Overall Lead Time Averages Are Still Intact

Taking a step back, the first three weeks of lead times show the combined iPhone 18 Pro and Pro Max averaging 3% higher than the iPhone 17 Pro and Pro Max.

My take: The trend of the fast decline in recent weeks is more telling, and softens the case for measurable upside in the December quarter. The reason is the most valuable lead time data point is the most recent datapoint. The wild card is the Duo, which I continue to believe will surprise to the upside. For the first year, I expect units of close to 20m, compared to current estimates that call for around 10m.

What the Duo Will Tell Us

Duo pre-orders begin on October 16 and ship October 23, and will be the first glimpse into the form factor’s success.There is going to be a lot of noise in those lead times because production will be low given the new form factor. I expect lead times will hit 5 weeks in the first month or orders. That spike will be encouraging, but should be taken in the context that production will be low initially.

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