Nvidia’s outlook next Wednesday should be a nonevent for investors. On October 28 at GTC Jensen flashed a slide that predicted they have enough demand for $500B in cumulative Blackwell and Rubin revenue through the end of CY26. That excludes any sales from China (which is looking less likely by the week) and any new sales (which they will add in the quarters ahead).

As a point of reference, currently the Street expects 59% revenue growth in CY25 and 39% in CY26 and 22% in CY27. Following earnings on November 19th, I expect growth estimates in CY26 to call for 45% growth.

Setting aside the supply question and assuming that they will be able to meet the $500B in cumulative demand implies at least 15% upside to Street numbers in CY26. Since then, Street numbers have risen by 4%, which means there is around 10% left on the table.

I believe there are two reasons why Street estimates do not reflect Jensen’s comments. First, it is unclear how much supply they will ultimately have on hand. Keep in mind they have been supply constrained for the better part of the past two years. Second, there are 60 analysts covering the company, and not all have changed numbers. Of the analysts that have raised numbers, they have increased their revenue outlook by about 6% for next year.

The Catch-22 prediction is short term trading in nature and speaks to the shift in the AI narrative over the past week, which has become increasingly concerned about over-investment in AI.

Next week’s Nvidia report comes at a unique crossroads for the NVDA investor mindset. Jensen’s comments on October 28 and subsequently have been bullish. At the same time SoftBank recently sold its entire NVDA position, which added to concerns that we might be reaching the top of AI growth rates.

One challenge going into earnings is the bar is high when it comes to guidance in part from recent comments from the company and in part from the hyperscaler outlook we got two weeks ago regrading capex spending next year.

Additionally, investors’ appetite for elevated levels of AI infrastructure spending has soured. That appetite shift began when Meta reported on October 29 and guided for expenses next year to grow faster than revenue, a flipped script from what Meta had been delivering over the past years despite the high level of investment.

The bottom line is that this quarter it is a coin toss how investors will react to the favorable guidance.

Stepping outside of the noise of how shares of NVDA will trade after earnings, I believe shares of NVDA remain attractive and the AI trade will remain intact in CY26. The investor concern in the market is healthy and largely misses the bigger point. The use cases for AI, its utility, and ultimately the case for monetization will emerge because intelligence at scale is valuable.

I expect in the months ahead, as more use cases emerge, the AI trade flywheel will quicken as investors see the progress toward profitability, which in turn will benefit investor confidence that we are early. That should be a positive for the multiple on shares of NVDA and across the AI infrastructure universe.

Disclaimer