As we enter the 10th year of our annual market predictions, here’s what we expect for 2026:

1. The Nasdaq will end the year up +10% primarily driven by the AI trade – We’re still early in AI and  now believe we are entering year 3 of a 5 year bull market that will likely end with the market leveling off rather than a sharp collapse. The current bubble talk is actually constructive because it keeps expectations in check and lowers the risk of an actual bubble forming.
2. Small cap tech (PSCT) will outperform the broader tech trade (QQQ) – Performance from the sub-$500B emerging tech companies will outperform the large cap tech.
3. Hyperscaler Capex growth will be up +50% – The Street is looking for Capex growth for AMZN, GOOG, META, and MSFT to be 33% y/y in CY26, down from 64% growth in CY25. We believe this is low and the AI infrastructure buildout will continue throughout CY26.
4. We don’t expect any of the leading AI companies to go public. While talk of IPOs for OpenAI, xAI, Databricks, Cursor/Anysphere, and Anduril will likely increase, we don’t anticipate any of them pursuing an IPO next year. This is a positive sign for the AI trade given its unlikely the market peaks until these companies have gone public.
5. Apple will launch the new Siri before April 30, 2026, and it will be well received – As of WWDC 2025 (June), Apple leadership has made it clear; the new Siri will be out in CY26 and I will be impressive. Getting this right is at the top of Cook’s to do list, which means the odds of success are high.
6. Cook to remain CEO of Apple – In the wake of the several leadership changes at Apple in 2025, we believe Tim Cook will remain CEO of Apple at least until end of 2027. We don’t expect any announcements on the topic next year.
7. Apple will be the best performing Mag 7 stock in in the first six months of 2026 – It’s all about iPhone exceeding expectations in the December and March quarters along with an expanding multiple as investor optimism grows on the belief that the new Siri (likely April) and improved Apple Intelligence will be growth driver in FY27.
8. Google will be the best performing Mag 7 stock in CY26 – Google is in the strongest position when it comes to a fully integrated AI stack. Gemini is a leading model, its user base is expanding faster than OpenAI’s, Search is integrating AI effectively with ads reportedly on the way, and GCP continues to hold its ground in the infrastructure buildout cycle.
9. Tesla will begin fully autonomous Robotaxi operations (without a safety driver) in 5 cities – We believe Tesla remains ultra-cautious with the safety drivers. Despite not being approved for mass consumer deployment, we believe Robotaxi will be approved without a safety driver by the end of the year. On the last earnings call, Elon said “We do expect to have no safety drivers in the car in Austin within a few months. I think that’s perhaps the most important data point. And then we do expect to be operating Robotaxi in I think about 8 to 10 metro areas by the end of the year. It depends on various regulatory approvals.” My guess is they launch in 8-10 cities, with 5 (Austin, Dallas, SF, Phoenix, and Vegas)  not using a safety driver.
10. Tesla will miss delivery expectations for FY26 – The Street is looking for 16% delivery growth next year compared to down 7% in 2025. We believe next year deliveries will be flat to up 5%. A miss on the delivery number doesn’t change the Tesla investment case which is built on FSD, Robotaxi and Optimus.
11. Waymo will be doing +1m weekly paid rides by the end of the year – Weekly rides nearly doubled in 2025, rising from 250k in April to 450k in December. Waymo is expanding its fleet by +2,000 vehicles and launching operations and testing across the U.S. and internationally. We believe this growth momentum is likely to continue. At 1m rides per week, Waymo would capture about 1.3% of annual rides in the US, which speaks to how nascent autonomy is.

A look back at our 2025 predictions:

We went 4.5 for 10 on our 2025 predictions:

1. The Nasdaq will see two 10% pullbacks, and still finish the year higher than it started – Got it. Early in the year we saw a few major market pullbacks. The Nasdaq was down 14% from Feb 17 to Mar 12, then down another 16% between Mar 24 and Apr 7.
2. TikTok’s U.S. business will be sold – Missed (0.5 points). The U.S. has approved a sale of TikTok’s American business, but the deal still has steps left before it officially closes.
3. Apple and Tesla will receive tariff waivers (if Trump executes his proposed China tariffs) – Got it. Trump did implement steep China tariffs in 2025, and both Apple (on iPhones and other electronics) and Tesla (through domestic content based auto exemptions) secured tariff relief, even though neither company avoided all tariff related costs.
4. The IPO market will continue to accelerate to +250 in 2025, up from 210 in 2024 – Got it. There have been 326 IPOs on the U.S. stock market in 2025. As of Dec 9, 2025, this is up 55% from the same time in 2024, which had 210 IPOs by this date.
5. Russell 2000 Growth (IWO) will outperform the S&P 500 (SPY) – Missed. As of 12/8/2025, the S&P 500 is outperforming the Russell 2000 Growth, 17% vs. 15%.
6. Bitcoin will reach $150k – Missed. Bitcoin’s rally peaked in early October to just above $126k before plummeting roughly 25% to just over $90k, below the starting point of 2025. Trump’s tariffs and export controls triggered a broad risk off move, record ETF outflows, and forced liquidations of leveraged positions cascaded into a sharp crypto wide drawdown.
7. Uber and Lyft will underperform the Nasdaq – Missed. The excitement of robotaxi services was a let down. Tesla’s Robotaxi was over-promised and under-delivered, and Google’s Waymo impressively expanded, only to be overshadowed by UBER’s 42% and LYFT’s 62% 2025 performance. This compares to the Nasdaq’s 22%.
8. Tesla will start selling a $35k model (w/o EV Credits) – Missed. While we anticipated either a new model or a stripped down Model 3, we saw a stripped down Model Y, starting at just under $40k. There remains speculation of a low-cost consumer Cybercab that has a steering wheel and gas pedal. I’d bet the under on Elon green lighting this.
9. 2025 will be the year of custom silicon – Got it. The theme of hyperscalers expanding their adoption of custom silicon , complementing the general-purpose use of GPUs, did play out in 2025. Evidenced by Broadcom (AVGO +74% YTD) outperforming Nvidia’s gold standard GPUs (NVDA +34% YTD).
10. Tesla will gain U.S. EV Market Share by the end of the year – Missed. According to Cox Automotive at the end of Q3, Tesla’s YTD y/y sales were down 4.3%, leaving Tesla with a 41.0% Q3 market share and a YTD market share of 43.2%.

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