Tesla

The ending of the U.S. EV tax credit will prove to be a long-term win for Tesla, given it lured traditional automakers into slowing their investment in electrification while Tesla builds an advantage in autonomy. This marks an exclamation point on a consumer shift away from EV adoption that I did not anticipate. I now expect about 25% of cars sold in the U.S. in 2030 to be fully electric, compared with my 50% forecast five years ago. Traditional automakers are more skeptical and see little motivation to prioritize EV investment in the near term. In the end, I stand by my conviction that EVs’ cost and performance benefits, particularly in autonomy, will win consumers over. Traditional automakers are making a mistake by pulling back. By slowing EV development to save costs today, they risk being caught unprepared to capitalize on autonomy tomorrow.

At the end of the month, the U.S. EV tax credit will sunset, which may explain why in August Ford and GM reset their EV plans and in September VW cut its U.S. 2030 EV target to 20%, down from 50% three years ago. This tempered EV outlook contrasts with increasing investments into autonomy, pushing these companies into a Catch-22: saving money by slowing the path to electrification dampens the autonomy reward.

I consider myself grounded in reality. The reality is that a fairy tale Tesla $8.5T market cap is on the table. Tesla’s board has made it clear that they want Elon’s attention on the company, and they are willing to make it worth his time with a potential $1T pay package. The numbers are mind blowing and achievable if Musk commercializes physical AI through FSD, robotaxi, and Optimus. One final lever would likely involve combining Tesla with xAI.

Tesla’s chip deal with Samsung underscores how far ahead it is of traditional car makers when it comes to building physical AI and the long game of autonomy. The AI6 chip (Hardware 6) should ramp in 2027. As a reminder, the company is expected to ramp A15 (Hardware 5) next year. While more powerful hardware is always better, the deal with Samsung raises the question: is Tesla signaling that the breakthrough moment in FSD will be powered by the A16 in 2027? The question comes from the reality that Robotaxi in Austin and the Bay Area remain limited in scope, likely because of the number of interventions in Austin. I expect the stock will trade on concrete signs of progress, including expansion of the service area, number of vehicles, or moving from private to public availability.

Shares of TSLA declined by 4% in after-hours trading as investors wanted to hear more from the company about expected progress this quarter for Robotaxi in Austin. While the disappointment is understandable, it doesn't change the fact that Tesla is still best positioned to capitalize on autonomy and physical AI long term. As for deliveries, they should quicken in mid 2026 as the new, more affordable model begins to aggressively ramp.

Elon’s success at changing the TSLA investment narrative to autonomy has shifted the focus topics for June earnings. Investors will zero in on five topics on the call: 1. Commentary about expansion of the robotaxi service 2. Timing of the new more affordable vehicle or Cybercab 3. Impact of the tax credit sunset on deliveries 4. The typical focus on auto gross margins ex credits. 5. Timing of Hardware 5. I continue to be positive on TSLA given they remain best positioned in physical AI.

For years, EV buyers fixated on range as the key buying metric in response to range anxiety. As Tesla enters the autonomous era, a new metric is taking center stage: the strength of the car’s self driving hardware. A Tesla’s processor and sensor suite (HW3 vs HW4 vs upcoming HW5) now determine how well it can run FSD software and whether it can access future autonomy upgrades. I believe HW5 will be needed for the fleet to go mainstream, and upgrading existing hardware will be cost prohibitive. The bottom line: Tesla is best positioned to be one of the biggest winners in autonomy, despite the reality that rolling out new hardware will be a near term governor on growth.

In June, U.S. EV sales were down 6%, compared to up 9% in March 2025. I believe we will return to growth next year because EV headwinds around tax credits, buyer options, charging infrastructure, and range anxiety are temporary. By 2030, I expect 25% of new car sales in the U.S. will be EVs, up from 8% today. The timeline to mass electrification has stretched, but the economic incentives are still in place for them to eventually account for all vehicle sales. Once mainstream buyers internalize that an EV can cost half as much to “fuel” and meaningfully less to maintain, adoption should accelerate, especially as charging infrastructure scales and compelling sub-$40k options proliferate.

June deliveries came in 4% above whisper expectations and in line with the published consensus. Most investors, including myself, were expecting around 370,000 units, down 17% y/y. Instead, Tesla reported 384,122, a 14% decline. The good news: that -14% should mark the bottom (March 2025 was -13%), with growth rates improving going forward. More importantly, if deliveries hold steady over the next couple of years and the company makes measurable progress on Robotaxi and FSD, the stock should respond positively.

Tesla will report June deliveries the morning of July 2nd. We expect deliveries of 370k, down 17% y/y, compared to FactSet consensus calling for down 12%, and down 13% last quarter. The June quarter should mark the low point of the delivery declines, and we expect the back half of the year will show improvement, albeit still declining. We expect investors will take two things away from the June deliveries: 1) June was an ugly number and that's ok because the worst should be behind us. 2) Despite the delivery declines, the company has ample cash to continue to invest in new vehicles and autonomy. We expect the overall cash and investments position to end the year between $33–35B, compared to $37B at the end of March. That said; all that matters for shares of TSLA over the next six months is the pace of the Robotaxi rollout.

Next week’s soft launch of Robotaxi in Austin matters because the economics of autonomy are compelling. This note outlines sensitivity to both the numbers and the timing of service ramp-up. The bottom line: there's a lot riding on how Robotaxi performs in Austin from a safety standpoint, as autonomy is Tesla's future.

Tesla will reportedly unveil its robotaxi service on June 12 in Austin on the heels of the Musk vs. Trump drama. The initial launch is said to be small and is of little importance in our eyes. What's of critical importance is whether the President will make it more difficult for Tesla to scale the service, along with its safety track record. My take: Trump will stay on the sidelines given autonomy is central to physical AI, and for the US to be a leader in AI, it also needs to be a leader in physical AI.