SpaceX

This week, the new Grok 4.6 moved from 8th to 4th place on the key AI model intelligence leaderboard. That’s noteworthy because over the last couple of years the model has been between 6th and 15th place. The move to 4th is impressive, but in the AI model leapfrog game the future position is debatable. I believe Grok’s trend in model intelligence will continue to improve relative to the competition over the next 6 months, yielding a top spot early in 2027. That’s important because in the long term, premium models will enjoy pricing leverage.

SpaceX shares were down 14% after its first quarter as a public company, despite June revenue beating Street expectations by 13%. The primary reason for the slide is that capex in the September and December quarters will be about 65% above the Street. This is the same investor capex concern that has plagued big tech for the last year, around the prospects that spending will dilute profits into perpetuity. While the concern is valid in some circumstances, it does not apply to SpaceX, which has the most aggressive vision: building a vertically integrated AI company. Revenue guidance, which centered on a $100B revenue run rate exiting 2026, implies about $22B in the December quarter, about 17% above the Street. The bottom line is the SpaceX business has grown and will continue to grow at 100%+ for the next couple of years, and investments in capex should ensure an impressive growth rate through 2030.