SpaceX

SpaceX shares were down 14% after its first quarter as a public company, despite June revenue beating Street expectations by 13%. The primary reason for the slide is that capex in the September and December quarters will be about 65% above the Street. This is the same investor capex concern that has plagued big tech for the last year, around the prospects that spending will dilute profits into perpetuity. While the concern is valid in some circumstances, it does not apply to SpaceX, which has the most aggressive vision: building a vertically integrated AI company. Revenue guidance, which centered on a $100B revenue run rate exiting 2026, implies about $22B in the December quarter, about 17% above the Street. The bottom line is the SpaceX business has grown and will continue to grow at 100%+ for the next couple of years, and investments in capex should ensure an impressive growth rate through 2030.