Companies

We tested ChatGPT, Gemini, Grok and Claude to determine which models provide the most clear and accurate responses. Our theory is not all foundation models are created equal. The two takeaways from our first benchmarking are: first, there is no single best model; certain models are better at handling specific queries. Second, there generally are two model "personalities"; with Grok as the only model with a distinct "personality". As for the what does this mean for search question: the answer is Google will win. What is most important for the future of ChatGPT, Grok, and Claude is their ability to allow third parties to create unique, deep, and conversational experiences that deliver insights beyond search. That doesn't exist today.

Apple made good on expectations, announcing generative AI integration across its software and applications. Accessing these features will require 85% of Apple users to upgrade some or all of their devices over the next few years. This means revenue growth in FY25 and FY26 will likely be +10%, ahead of the current 6% and 4% expectations, which should be a positive for AAPL.

While it's still more than two months away, I'm sharing my early predictions for the "Robotaxi Event". I expect three vehicles to be revealed, including Robotaxi, Model 2 and Cybervan (tailored to the ride-hailing vision). I expect initial production ramps could start as soon as summer of 2025, with FSD approval playing a large factor in the timing. These vehicles fit into Elon's vision that they need to solve autonomy to unlock shareholder value.

The most recent data coming out of China gives us a better picture of what is going on in Apple's China business. iPhone sales in Mainland China were likely down 5% y/y in Mar-24, better than Apple's reported 8% decline in Greater China. When Cook said iPhone grew in China in Mar-24, he was likely talking about units, not revenue. In other words, this means China's non-iPhone segment was down 12%, notably lower than the global average of Apple's non-iPhone revenue which was up 4% y/y.

Three of the four iPads got long awaited updates including thinner design, bigger screens, faster chips, and more memory. These changes will jump start the segment's growth in June and September after being down for 9 of the past 10 quarters. Looking into 2025, I expect the iPad to be on a steady decline of around 2% as the segment is impacted by the reality of infrequent upgrades. The big surprise announcement was the pace that Apple is introducing new chips, a sign that the company will use hardware as a competitive advantage once they get more into the AI race.

Shares of $AAPL traded up 6% following March results as investors were relieved that the company maintained Street revenue guidance along with an increased share buyback. The next seven months will likely show Apple's business accelerating every quarter from down 4% y/y in Mar-24 to up 6% in Dec-24. More importantly, the company reiterated their optimism that they will bring generative AI to most of their products, likely starting in the Fall. Bottom line: Apple's business is intact, revenue growth is improving, and the company is pursuing generative AI to further boost sales.

Shares of Meta traded down 11% on the March quarter guidance that the company is entering into a multi-year investment cycle starting with AI capex in 2024 tracking to be 12% higher than previous expectations. We believe investors are missing the point. Meta has a golden opportunity in the next decade to leverage its data and build AI tools and products for billions of users, advertisers, and businesses.

Shares of GOOG were up 11% on March earnings driven by a combination of growth acceleration in Search and GCP, along with an outlook for improving margins. Additionally, the company is making massive investments in generative AI, as evidenced by capex increasing 91% y/y. In short, the two biggest concerns for Google investors, what the future of Search will look like and is the company moving fast enough in AI, were put to ease for the moment. Long-term, I believe Search revenue is here to stay and AI will be a material net positive for the company.

Tesla had a difficult March quarter, reporting the first year over year revenue decline (9%) since Mar-20. Most of the business metrics suggest 2024 will be a difficult year for the company. That said, shares of TSLA rose 11% given the company's announcement that the next generation vehicle will come about 9 months earlier than expected, along with optimism for a sales rebound this year, and the promise around FSD. Putting it together, investing in Tesla comes down to a belief in the company's ability to convert that vision into reality. We remain optimistic.

Joz, Apple's Head of Marketing, posted on X saying this year’s WWDC will be “Absolutely Incredible!” as in "AI". This will mark the first glimpse into the company's generative AI strategy and be a monumental day given it will usher in the biggest change in Apple's operating system design since the mid-80's point-and-tap/click interface. This will be a new communication interface driven by generative AI.

In 2020 Apple was more or less victorious over Epic games in defending the App Store. Now the DOJ is taking aim at Apple, largely focused on the iPhone’s role at promoting the sale of software and services and locking users into upgrading. The substance of the debate on shares of AAPL will focus on two topics: 1) What will the impact be to Apple’s Services segment? 2) How long will this take to sort out? While I believe this will take three years to sort out, I expect little will actually change, just like we saw 25 years ago with the DOJ going after Microsoft.

The news of Apple launching its own model and talking with Google and OpenAI to license a foundation model speaks to the degree that the company's growth North Star has changed over the past month. First, it was Project Titan getting canceled, now it’s considering doing something rare at Apple, license another company's tech stack. I believe Apple now gets it. AGI has the potential to have a profound impact on their business, and they need to add AI to the company's core competency of hardware, software, and services. To get there, I expect more investment, and a slight decline in margins in the near-term, and expanding margins long-term.