Companies

Nvidia's January quarter and April guidance marked a transition from a company reporting breathtaking upside to one delivering modest upside. This shift supports the narrative that Nvidia's best days are behind it. However, I believe Jensen is on the right track in claiming that reasoning increasingly drives a 100x increase in demand for compute. If true, the company will return to reporting impressive upside in CY26.

This year’s shareholder meeting had a scripted tone, offering no new business updates. Gone are the days of free-flowing Q&A sessions that once made headlines. This shift has transformed the meeting into a forum aimed at aligning investors with the company’s vision. Apple’s focus remains unchanged: building the world’s best devices and services while integrating AI into its core. The market responded positively, with AAPL shares finishing the day flat, compared to the Nasdaq, which closed down 1.3%.

Apple is increasing its U.S. investment to $500B over the next four years, boosting annual spending by $39B compared to its 2021 commitment. However, the company was likely on track to increase spending by $20B annually to support natural business growth, meaning the true incremental investment is around $20B per year. The investment is the right move as it nearly eliminates tariff risks while expanding data centers, building a new manufacturing facility in Texas, and supporting AI infrastructure for Apple Intelligence.

Deepwater’s second annual Frontier Tech Survey measures the American public’s viewpoint on emerging technologies, including AI, Electrification & Automation, the Creator Economy, and Relationship with Tech. Key Takeaways: AI – General usage is increasing but we are still early in the…

All four key hyperscalers guided CapEx spending in 2025 to grow at a faster rate than previously anticipated before the DeepSeek scare. This signals that the most advanced AI companies in the world believe the path to AGI will demand an obscene amount of hardware. Yet, despite this clear trajectory, many AI hardware companies are still struggling to recover from the losses triggered by DeepSeek.

Apple's reported partnership with Alibaba to bring AI to China alleviates some of the headwinds Apple has been facing in the region for the past two years. Apple’s path forward in China will depend on how well it integrates AI into its devices, navigates growing nationalist sentiment, and adapts its pricing strategy to match shifting consumer behaviors.

Jensen Huang's marathon hour-and-a-half CES keynote emphasized that we are still in the early stages of the AI hardware buildout. He highlighted that scaling laws are holding, Agentic AI will soon drive exponential workloads requiring Nvidia chips, physical AI is still nascent but positioned as part of a 10-year investment phase for AI hardware, and consumer AI hardware is expected to arrive in 2025.

The odds of Tesla successfully capitalizing on autonomy increased with the news that Trump's transition team is planning to make regulating self-driving vehicles a top priority. Tesla holds a unique position, as it can pursue autonomy through a combination of two business models: asset-light, focusing on vehicle hardware sales, or asset-heavy. I believe these strategies could significantly boost Tesla's operating profit by the end of the decade, with a wide range of potential outcomes—anywhere from a 10% to a 155% increase, depending on which model they pursue. My prediction: by 2030, autonomy will account for 40% of Tesla's operating income.

Today, Waymo alone is too small for Alphabet investors to care about. However, the management team is sharing more about their rapid progress, plans to expand operations, and has raised additional outside capital. I've modeled the business and found it to be surprisingly attractive. I believe Alphabet will spin out Waymo in the next 2-4 years, with a potential valuation of $350B to $850B by 2030, which could add between 12-28% to GOOG's current market cap, depending on Alphabet's ownership percentage.

It is becoming increasingly clear that the $7,500 EV tax credit will likely end in the US next year. While this outcome has been largely anticipated since late summer, Musk's relationship with Trump left open the possibility that the incentive might be preserved. As a result, deliveries this quarter are likely to exceed expectations as demand is pulled forward. For next year, I believe the company will still meet the Street's 14% y/y growth expectation, which is below Elon’s recent projections of 20–30% growth. Either way, delivery growth is expected to accelerate from being flat in 2024 to 12% in 2025.

Apple’s September quarter results reflected stronger than expected iPhone sales and gave guidance for December that suggested top line growth will essentially be unchanged from September. In other words, Apple Intelligence will not accelerate growth in the December quarter, a reality that is disappointing to the "iPhone supercycle" camp. I believe once these features are in place, and available worldwide, the supercycle will begin, likely in the Jun-25 quarter.

Google’s stock jumped +5% on its September quarter results largely due to the evidence that AI Overviews are having a positive impact on Search revenue. This topic has been the bullseye for investors given the potential that generative AI could displace Google's bread and butter Search business long-term. Additionally, AI is benefiting Google Cloud as growth accelerated and margins improved. I believe Google remains one of the best positioned companies to benefit from AI over the next few years.