iPhone 18 Pro and Pro Max began presale on Saturday, September 12, and become available Friday, September 18.

Deepwater tracks point-in-time lead times for 8 countries (U.S., UK, China, Canada, Switzerland, France, Japan, and Germany) on a daily basis. To date, they’re tracking about 15% longer than last year’s launch day of the 17 family.

It’s worth noting that lead times have historically been a directional read on iPhone demand, factoring in the supply unknowns.

Below are the comparable y/y lead times for the Pro models:

What stands out in these lead time numbers is that I would have expected them to be shorter this year, given my belief that some historical Pro buyers would be opting for the Duo. The fact that they jumped on launch day and are notably longer than last year means one of two things: One, demand for Duo is going to fall flat, and Pro buyers are sticking with their model of choice. Or two, traditional Pro model buyers are moving to Duo, and the fact that lead times are higher on launch day suggests that historical iPhone 18 buyers are moving up, possibly because of the splitting of the cycle. My sense is that the second option is in play. As mentioned, we’ll get a clearer read when Duo pre-orders open on October 16.

Since the iPhone lineup was announced on September 9th, consensus iPhone revenue estimates for FY27 have come up by 3%, or $9.5B. While there are moving parts around the price increase and shifting mix, along with the reality that some analysts have yet to update their numbers, I believe the majority of the revisions are related to the addition of Duo revenue.

If we attributed the additional $9.5B in iPhone revenue just to the Duo and used a $2,100 ASP, that would imply the Street is looking for 4.5m units in FY27. Factoring in that only about half of analysts have published their updated models to FactSet suggests the real number is about double that, or around 7m units for FY27. That compares to the 270m overall phones Apple will sell next year.

As a point of reference, over the past four quarters, the global foldable phone market was about 13m units, with Huawei at 50% share, Samsung, Motorola, and Honor all around 10–15% share, and everyone else around 10%. Assuming it will be difficult for Duo to win over Huawei and Android users, that implies analysts expect Duo to end its first year of sales with about 35% market share. I would consider that an understandable outlook, but also too conservative.

It’s important to note that the next four quarters have a major unknown around supply. Perhaps the reality of ramping a new form factor justifies the Street’s conservative view of Duo sales in the first year.

My take is the Street is too low for FY27 Duo. I believe a realistic view is that 35% of Pro Max users will make the move to Duo. That’s a big segment, considering I believe last year Pro and Pro Max accounted for 45% of the 270m iPhones sold. Basically, if a third of Pro Max users make the jump to Duo, that would increase overall iPhone revenue in FY27 by 10%, driven by the fact that ASP for Duo will be at least 60% higher than the average ASP of Pro and Pro Max.

My bottom line: Duo is going to account for about 8% of units next year and 14% of iPhone revenue.

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