I’ve studied lead times for the past 15 years and have concluded that while it’s part art, part science, and longer lead times typically are a leading indicator of higher demand.

At Deepwater, we measured lead times for the iPhone 17 family on Apple’s online store in eight countries and found them currently sitting at an average delivery date of roughly 2.6 weeks, compared to about 1.7 weeks at the same point for last year’s launch.

The high-end Pro Max model is the longest wait at around 3.3 weeks, with the Pro and standard models closer to 2.3 weeks. What has surprised me the most is the new ultra-thin iPhone Air is readily available in most regions (often available for same-day pickup). While some may read this as a sign of soft demand, my view is that initial supply was greater than normal. That take is based on the fact that new form factors have historically been in high demand. It’s been 11 years (iPhone 6 Plus) since there has been as significant of a hardware change, which further suggests the lead times are impacted by greater supply.

China, which accounts for just over 15% of sales, stands out with an average 4.4 weeks for all models except the Air. The iPhone Air’s China debut is on hold due to a near-term regulatory delay: its eSIM-only design requires approval from Chinese authorities, so the Air is temporarily unavailable there.

Despite the Air’s absence, early signs suggest demand in China is strong. JD.com, a leading Chinese online retailer, reported that first-day iPhone 17 pre-orders exceeded last year’s iPhone 16 launch, and that excludes the Air.

The Street is currently modeling roughly 7% y/y iPhone revenue growth for the September ’25 quarter, and I expect it to be closer to 8%. Quick reminder, there was a 1-2% pull-forward in the June quarter because of tariffs in the US, which could dampen iPhone sales in September. While the September quarter will only see two weeks of channel fill to carriers and retail around launch, the new phone should account for 30% of sales in the quarter, even though it only accounts for 15% of the days in the quarter.

The bottom line: for AAPL stock to keep going up, they need to beat the September quarter (even with the June tariff pull forward headwind)  and guide December higher.

As it stands today, the Street is looking for 7% iPhone growth in September, but I suspect the whisper number has already crept up to 9%, given shares of AAPL are up 3% on launch day compared to the Nasdaq flat. In the end, I believe December will be up 10% plus.

As for FY26, it seems reckless to base a week of preorder data and launch-day buzz on a full-year outcome. That said, the early read, both positive and negative, has been a directional sign for how the cycle performs in the out quarters.

What drives most of my confidence in the iPhone’s March, June, and September 2026 performance is going back to the upgrade well. Recall a year ago I predicted that iPhone in FY25 would have a better-than-expected year, in part because of Apple Intelligence and in part because the FY21 massive upgrade pool is due to return. Four years ago, iPhone sales were up 39% y/y, driven by the pandemic, and statistically we should have seen those buyers show up last year. I believe they did eventually come back, as evidenced by June 2025 iPhone sales being up 13%, or up 11% adjusting for the pull-forward, compared to the March quarter which was up 2%. In other words, I believe June 2025 was the first sign that FY21 upgraders were returning. I expect all of this to translate to iPhone growth next year of 8% plus, compared to current Street estimates of 5%.

In the end this won’t be a supercycle at up 8%, but it will be stronger than many are expecting and a nice improvement from the flat iPhone growth over the past few years. Additionally, by spring, investors will be more focused on the talk of the new foldable iPhone expected to roll out in a year, and hope for favorable sales around yet another new form factor should bode well for AAPL shares as the 17 cycle buzz fades in the spring.

Under the shine of the iPhone launch is investor disappointment around the company’s AI progress. In the 20 plus years I have studied Apple, I have never seen a product miss as significant as Apple Intelligence. The bar has been reset and all eyes are on next March, when it’s largely expected that the new Siri will launch, proving to investors that Apple has AI chops.

Needless to say, there is a lot of pressure from investors on what they see next spring.

I believe the company has more time to figure out AI than just next year. Potentially years, as long as no other consumer AI device captures the attention of consumers (yes, I can’t wait to see what Jony and OpenAI have to show us next year).

Apple does not make individual products. They make a family of products that are the backbone of consumers’ tech lives. A flashy AI feature from a competitor won’t shake Apple’s 1.7B users (2.35B active devices) from the tree.

My upgrade pool logic will be put to the test late in October when the company issues the December quarter iPhone outlook.

Disclaimer