Samsung and Google have sold foldables for the better part of five years. The category is still about 2% of all smartphone units because they’re expensive, around $2,000, have a visible crease, and the products never felt finished.

The Duo is a more compelling entrant because it brings three things to the category for the first time:

1) You can’t see the crease. 2) It’s surprisingly thin. Folded, it is about 15% wider than Pro Max, with roughly 50% more screen when open. 3) The materials are more industrial than the Samsung and Google foldables that have been on the market.

In the end, I left the event with greater confidence in its success. Taking a step back, it has been a long time since Apple announced a device that got people excited. AirPods in late 2016 was the last one, and even that took six to 12 months to ramp up. Vision Pro missed the mark. In other words, for the first time in a decade, Apple has its design mojo back.

On mix, my initial math has Duo at about 8%, or about 20m units in FY27, and accounting for about 12% of iPhone revenue over that period. Going into the event, I was expecting it to account for 4% and 5% of FY27 iPhone units and revenue, respectively.

Most people are probably wondering who will be paying $2k+ for the newest iPhone form factor. The answer is Pro Max users.

I estimate Pro Max accounts for about 30% of iPhone revenue. Those buyers already pay $1,200 to $1,300. On Apple’s upgrade plan, Pro Max is about $35 a month. Duo is about $58. That is an extra $23 a month for a device that will be handled a hundred-plus times a day. Given that aggressive usage, paying an extra $23 a month feels reasonable.

I believe if a third of Pro Max buyers move to Duo over the next year, overall iPhone revenue (it’s priced 54% higher than the Pro Max) will be about 6% higher, and total Apple revenue will be about 3% higher in FY27. That impact excludes anyone who will upgrade from 18 Pro or below, which suggests the sensitivity is on the conservative side.

When it comes to the common question, does Apple have what it takes to be successful in AI, the conversation usually lands on the timing of the new Siri, which has the potential to flip the Apple AI narrative from negative to positive. Unfortunately, the biggest negative from this week’s product event was we didn’t get any updates on the new Siri front. Going into the event, updates on the timing of the new Siri were at the top of my wish list. As a reminder, the product went into beta in July, and my experience, along with that of most who have tested it, suggests it represents a meaningful step forward. The catch is despite all of the progress, Apple still lacks the confidence to put a ship date on the calendar for the US, EU, or China.

My take is by year end, the new Siri will be part of a recommended software update that 75m US iPhone users get. The reason why the number isn’t higher is it requires you to have an iPhone 15 Pro or better, which means the fall, early winter release will be available to about half of US iPhone users. I believe that widely available update will be labeled as “Beta,” similar to how Apple Intelligence and the new Siri beta are currently labeled today. So what will it take for Apple to remove the “Beta” badge? Confidence in quality. The timing of that is unknown.

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