There’s a debate about the value of tracking lead times. After all, we don’t know how much supply there is, which makes it difficult to translate lead times into a measure of demand. That said, my observation over the past decade is that longer waits typically line up with stronger cycles.

The global snapshot compares favorably with last year. Three weeks after the release date, iPhone 17 lead times globally (eight countries) were 2.29 weeks, compared to iPhone 16 at 2.02 weeks, accounting for a 13% gap. That’s the same 13% gap we observed two weeks ago (2.45 weeks, compared to iPhone 16 at 2.16 weeks). The bottom line is that three weeks in, lead times this year are about 13% longer than last year.

One dynamic that continues to stand out in the country-level readings is that most countries were at around two weeks, while China was just under four weeks. I don’t have a good explanation for the gap, especially since most of the phones are assembled in China.

Where are lead times going from here? There will be some noise in the numbers if reports are accurate that Apple has asked suppliers to boost production of the entry level iPhone 17 by about 30–40%. If base-model output increases as reported, aggregate availability will improve and lead times should come down in the weeks ahead.

The bottom line is that I expect a fractional miss on the September iPhone whisper number, but this will be more than offset by positive December guidance and estimates moving above the whisper for FY26.

At the end of August, the Street was expecting 6% iPhone growth for the September quarter (FactSet). Today, in-print expectations have inched up to 7% y/y growth (unchanged from two weeks ago), while whisper numbers are likely closer to 10%, given that AAPL shares are up 7% since the end of August compared to a 5% gain in the Nasdaq.

In the end, I expect September to come in at 9% growth—above the printed estimate of 7% but below the whisper of 10%. Overall, I would consider that outcome good enough, since attention will likely shift to December guidance, which I expect to come in ahead of both the published estimates and the whisper number.

For the December quarter, the Street is currently expecting 7.4% growth, a 0.4% increase from a month ago. I believe the whisper number has reached 9%. Apple likely will not give detailed iPhone guidance for December but will provide enough direction for investors to back into a growth rate. The bottom line is that I expect the December iPhone revenue guide to be above 10%.

For FY26, expectations call for 5% growth (unchanged over the past two weeks). My sense is that the whisper number for FY26 still hovers around the published 5% estimate, given the wide gap between the December quarter and the full year. In the end, I now expect FY26 growth to exceed 8%.

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