I believe Tesla deliveries will slightly exceed the 470–475k whisper range and end up around 476k, up roughly 3% year-over-year.

The end of the credit is a big deal given that 35–40% of Tesla’s sales historically come from the U.S. Without this incentive, I estimate deliveries would have been closer to 440k, down about 5% year-over-year compared with declines of 13.5% in June and 13% in March.

Investors are well aware of the noise in this quarter and have largely priced in the good news. Over the past month, Tesla shares are up 32% versus the Nasdaq’s 6%, as analysts revised delivery forecasts higher. Canaccord raised its estimate to 483k, UBS to 475k, and Deutsche Bank to 462k, all citing strong U.S. demand ahead of the credit expiration. The focus now shifts to what growth should look like next year. Currently, Street expectations call for a rebound to 17% growth versus a 9% decline in 2025.

On the call we should get a better sense of what to expect for December deliveries. Currently, the Street is looking for about 470k deliveries, down 5% from last year. I believe the number will be closer to down 10% y/y.

The decline reflects the hangover from the September pull-forward as well as the potential for increased chatter about a new vehicle that could pause demand. On the July earnings call, management reiterated that a new, lower-priced vehicle remains on track, with production expected to begin in 2025 and ramp into 2026.

The lower-priced model Model 2 is unlikely to contribute meaningfully until late 2026, but it could dampen sales early in the year as consumers anticipate a yet to be seen new model. Either way, December should be viewed as a transition quarter, where investors will look past near-term weakness and focus on signals for how the new model may shape demand next year.While I expect delivery growth to increase meaningfully next year, I project it will be about 10%, compared with the Street’s expectation of 17%.

The bottom line is I expect delivery growth to be down 9% this year, up 10% next year (versus the Street at 17%), and up 22% in 2027 (versus the Street at 15%).

For 2026, delivery growth is expected to rebound 17% to about 1.9m units. My more cautious view for next year reflects the timing of Tesla’s new lower-priced vehicle, which I believe will not begin to ramp until late 2026. As a result, anticipation of the new model could freeze some buying decisions earlier in the year, leaving me with a 10% growth forecast.

It is worth noting that I expect the broader global EV market to grow 15–20% in 2026 compared with 2025. My more conservative stance reflects both the delayed timing of Tesla’s new vehicle ramp and the likelihood that consumer anticipation will dampen near-term demand.

By 2027, my thesis that EVs will be on track to reach 25% of U.S. new car sales will begin to be tested. I am comfortable with the Street’s 2027 delivery target of 2.18 million and believe that will translate into overall delivery growth of 22%, ahead of the Street’s current expectation of 17%. The difference is that I believe 2026 will fall short of the Street’s forecast, which mathematically boosts the growth rate in 2027.

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